How to Get Banned by Every Bookmaker

Ah, arbitrage betting – the holy grail of sports betting where you can guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome. It sounds like a dream, right? A way to game the system and rake in money by exploiting discrepancies in odds between different bookmakers. Well, yes, you can make money. The catch? If you’re good at it, you’ll likely end up banned by most bookies faster than you can say “multi-leg parlay.”

In this guide, I’ll take you through the basics of arbitrage betting and show you how you can use Python to automate the process. You’ll be placing bets like a pro, but be warned – bookmakers are pretty smart. They don’t like arbitrage bettors much, and if you’re not careful, you’ll end up on the naughty list. Consider this a guide on “How to Make Money and Get Banned from Every Bookie in Town.”

What is Arbitrage Betting?

Arbitrage betting (or arbing) is the process of placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event using different bookmakers who have set their odds in a way that creates a profit opportunity. The profit comes from finding these discrepancies in odds between the bookies and locking in a guaranteed win.

Here’s an example: Let’s say you’re betting on a tennis match. Bookmaker A offers odds of 2.10 on Player 1 winning, and Bookmaker B offers odds of 2.05 on Player 2 winning. If you place bets on both players with the correct stake, no matter who wins, you’ll make a profit.

How is this possible?

Bookmakers calculate odds based on their own models, biases, and customer behavior. Sometimes, they get it slightly wrong, and this creates an arbitrage opportunity for sharp-eyed punters.

The Math Behind Arbitrage Betting

To figure out if a set of odds presents an arbitrage opportunity, use the following formula:

[ \text{Arbitrage Percentage} = \left( \frac{1}{\text{Odds for Outcome 1}} \right) + \left( \frac{1}{\text{Odds for Outcome 2}} \right) ]

If the total is less than 1, you’ve found an arbitrage opportunity! That’s when you can step in and place your bets to guarantee a profit.

For example:

• Bookmaker A offers odds of 2.10 for Player 1
• Bookmaker B offers odds of 2.05 for Player 2

The arbitrage percentage would be:

[ \left( \frac{1}{2.10} \right) + \left( \frac{1}{2.05} \right) = 0.476 + 0.488 = 0.964 ]

Since 0.964 is less than 1, this is a valid arbitrage opportunity.

Python to the Rescue: Automating Arbitrage Detection

Let’s get a bit technical now. You can use Python to automate the process of finding arbitrage opportunities by scraping odds from different bookmakers. Below is a basic example of how you can set up an arbitrage detection system using Python.

Step 1: Install Required Libraries

First, you’ll need a few libraries to handle web scraping and some basic calculations. If you haven’t already, install them using pip:

pip install requests beautifulsoup4 pandas

Step 2: Scraping Odds

We’ll use requests and BeautifulSoup to scrape odds from bookmaker websites. Here’s a basic script that demonstrates how to fetch odds from a fictional bookmaker:

import requests
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup

def get_odds(bookmaker_url):
    response = requests.get(bookmaker_url)
    soup = BeautifulSoup(response.text, 'html.parser')
    
    # Assuming the odds are in a specific tag, e.g., <span class="odds">
    odds = [float(span.text) for span in soup.find_all('span', class_='odds')]
    
    return odds

# Example of scraping odds
bookmaker_a_url = 'https://example.com/bookmaker_a'
odds_a = get_odds(bookmaker_a_url)

bookmaker_b_url = 'https://example.com/bookmaker_b'
odds_b = get_odds(bookmaker_b_url)

print(f"Odds from Bookmaker A: {odds_a}")
print(f"Odds from Bookmaker B: {odds_b}")

This script scrapes odds from two bookmakers. In reality, you’d need to adjust the HTML selectors based on how the bookmakers’ websites are structured, and they often change frequently to deter scraping.

Step 3: Calculating Arbitrage Opportunities

Next, you want to calculate the arbitrage percentage between two sets of odds. Here’s a Python function to do that:

def calculate_arbitrage(odds_a, odds_b):
    arbitrage_percentage = (1 / odds_a) + (1 / odds_b)
    return arbitrage_percentage

# Example odds
odds_a = 2.10  # For Player 1
odds_b = 2.05  # For Player 2

arbitrage_percentage = calculate_arbitrage(odds_a, odds_b)
if arbitrage_percentage < 1:
    print(f"Arbitrage opportunity detected! Percentage: {arbitrage_percentage:.2%}")
else:
    print("No arbitrage opportunity.")

This basic script will print out whether or not there’s an arbitrage opportunity between the two bookmakers.

Step 4: Automating the Betting Process (Optional, but Risky!)

In theory, you could extend this script to automatically place bets when an arbitrage opportunity is found, but this steps into risky territory. Many bookmakers will quickly detect unusual betting patterns and flag your account. In some cases, they will limit your betting amount or outright ban you.

Why Do Bookmakers Ban Arbitrage Bettors?

If you’re successful with arbitrage, don’t expect to keep your accounts for long. Bookmakers are in the business of making money, and arbitrage betting cuts into their profits. Here are some of the ways they detect and respond to arbitrage bettors:

1. Unusual Betting Patterns: If you’re consistently betting on both sides of an event, this raises a red flag.
2. Bet Timing: If you’re placing bets only when odds fluctuate in your favour, that’s another giveaway.
3. Sharp Movements: Arbitrage bettors often move with the odds in a very calculated way, unlike regular punters who bet based on emotion or hunches.
4. Account Limiting: Once detected, bookmakers will often limit the maximum stake you can place, making arbitrage unprofitable.

Final Thoughts

Arbitrage betting can be profitable, but it’s also a short-lived venture. Bookmakers don’t take kindly to those who game their systems, and sooner or later, they’ll catch on. If you’re using Python to automate the process, you may last a bit longer, but the banhammer is inevitable.

To avoid getting banned too quickly, here are a few tips:

• Spread your bets across multiple accounts to avoid drawing attention.
• Vary your bet sizes so your betting patterns don’t stand out.
• Don’t always bet on both outcomes with the same bookmaker.

That said, arbitrage betting isn’t illegal, but it’s definitely frowned upon by bookmakers. If you’re happy to live life on the edge and don’t mind eventually being banned by every bookmaker, give it a go. Just remember, in the world of betting, the house always fights back.

So, what are you waiting for? Fire up that Python script and start arbing… but don’t be too surprised when you get a sternly worded email from your favourite bookie!

Good luck and happy betting!